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Week 33: The need for a revised model of where we are with the pandemic

At present, the usual model in use assumes that all our problems will be resolved by using a wonderful vaccine that will be highly efficient, and that there is no real need to think about the alternatives. There is a real chance that no vaccine effective f or say >85% of recipients will be developed – certainly not in the next few months, and perhaps ever.  We may possibly have to rely on more than one vaccine, but there are real doubts about our almost magical belief that somehow the problem will be solved.   Should we take a look at the alternative world?  The early results of the US election are proof, if proof is needed, that about half of the US population have difficulty understanding what  Dr  Fauci and others have been saying to them.      i. Are lockdow ns ever desirable?   There are times when national leaders have no a l ternative but to move over to a lock-down, as otherwise their health system will be overwhelmed, and the lock...
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Week 32: What is known about immunity passports?

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Early developments in theorising about the pandemic   The topic of whether immunity to SARS  Cov 2 can indicate resistance to Covid-19 has been under active discussion since the beginning of the pandemic. There are 6 viruses in the coronavirus group, the first four being associated with common disorders that come and go each year, the common cold as well as influenza like illnesses. The other two are responsible for Middle Eastern Respiratory syndrome and Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-Cov2).. It is this last virus that is thought to be responsible for Covid-19. The WHO produced its first paper about covid-19 on 24 th  April 2020, ‘ Immunity passports in the context of Covid-19 ’. This describes a non-specific innate response to any new infection, followed by a more specific response mediated by immunoglobulins and T cells, leading to cellular immunity.    The furore that followed Publications expressing great uncertainty about using immunity to SARS-Co...
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Week 31: How can we interfere with the preoccupation by the UK and the EU to avoid being the one who blinks?

The problem Boris, probably advised by Dominic, is playing a d a ngerous game of “who will blink first” with the EU. The problem is that  our side  will not wish to blink  first , and Boris will find himself allied with the most backward members of his party, and  we will all  find ourselves in a no-deal Brexit trap. We need to do everything we can to avoid this.    One alarming possibility is that the population, most of whom are fed up with the whole topic, will  sleepwalk their way into an outcome that few of them really want.  Why did no-one object? Because we are patriotic, and in general believe in supporting our government. Few people really want to rock the boat, by returning to themes that will embarrass those in power.    Ye t  we need to raise things that neither Boris now Dominic wish to hear.  Let them know that while all these issues have been debated endlessly, that we are dealing with important issues that ...
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Week 30: Our overall government policy has not changed: TOO LITTLE & TOO LATE

After-thought;  Isn’t it about time to carry out a survey of our present population, as we approach a “no deal/brexit”, before the gloomy gates on our relationship with the EU closes? Our next blog, perhaps?  The pr esent log-jam: A t the time of writing this blog we are still muddling along to the next crisis, as we have done from the start.   We are now well into our second wave  of covid-19 cases , and HM Government has no clear policy other than go on with the people we have in charge, and hope for the best.  The only new condition is that they are no longer guided by ‘the science’ – they ignore it.    If we are ever to transform our position we must remove our health secretary,  (Matt Hancock)  as he is responsible for setting up a very inferior ‘ Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support‘ (FTTIS) policy,  and he appointed a totally incompetent person to be in charge of the system (Ms. Dido Harding).  Infact, neither Ms Harding no...
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Week 29: Two very different ways of dealing with a pandemic: planning ahead, or drifting from one crisis to another

The problem We will compare Norway as a country that planned ahead, with the UK which made almost every mistake possible. Our  planners  ahead would be South Korea, Denmark, Finland, Germany and New Zealand. Our  drifters  would be France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal. We will be using rates per million at risk, in contrast to numbers given on  tv , which are often simple counts.   Planning ahead: the example of Norway . The first dramatic difference was that quite large sums of money was spent early, and detailed plans were made to cover a wide range of problems. Large sums of money were spent  early on  for vaccine developme nt, digital solutions for contact tracing, for a mobile app  for contact tracing, for remote medical consultation, for training medical  personel  in intensive care medicine, and for updating and distributing a digital tool to facilitate contact tracing. It  is an interesting country in term...
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Week 28: How populist leaders muck things up, each in their own individual ways - a comparison between Trump, Modi and Bolsonaro

  The problem It is easy to assume that one right wing populist dictator will be very like another. This blog will make no  such assumption, but will argue that each dictator will have his own distinctive ways of making a mess of things.    The  covid  comparisons, and leader’s behaviour   Cases/M New  dly  cases . Tests    Deaths/M  New dly deaths Med experts  opposed.                             Face masks  by leader Trump 7.08M 45,368    5.0M ( april )   601.9 372 yes not worn  Modi 5.99M 88,600 7.4M   62.8   1,053 yes, poor adv. yes Bolsonaro 4.72M 28,378 no data 642.3   377 yes not worn   Some other comparisons:      GDP Popln.dens . Gini  coeff .  Does Crime  reduce  in lockdown? Internal  migration    USA 20,500 33.3/km 2 .434 yes, but  dom.v.g...
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