Week 30: Our overall government policy has not changed: TOO LITTLE & TOO LATE

After-thought; Isn’t it about time to carry out a survey of our present population, as we approach a “no deal/brexit”, before the gloomy gates on our relationship with the EU closes? Our next blog, perhaps? 

The present log-jam:

At the time of writing this blog we are still muddling along to the next crisis, as we have done from the start.  We are now well into our second wave of covid-19 cases, and HM Government has no clear policy other than go on with the people we have in charge, and hope for the best. The only new condition is that they are no longer guided by ‘the science’ – they ignore it. 

 

If we are ever to transform our position we must remove our health secretary, (Matt Hancock) as he is responsible for setting up a very inferior ‘Find, Test, Trace, Isolate and Support‘ (FTTIS) policy, and he appointed a totally incompetent person to be in charge of the system (Ms. Dido Harding). Infact, neither Ms Harding nor any of the private organisations like Serco have experience of working in major medical projects in the NHS, It has become clear that Ms. Harding has no clear idea of how an efficient FTTIS project might work, and she is beholden to the Health Secretary for every detail of how she got her job. The idea of what can be achieved by an efficient FTTIS system has not been understood, either by Ms Harding or her boss. They have not understood the need for prompt feedback of test results, nor have they pressed for adequate supplies of test materials. Worse still ,neither of them has much idea of what to do when a person with the virus is identified, the “isoleate and support” part seems seldom acted upon. We are wasting time with these two people are in effective charge. The worthless contracts with Serco and other private providers must also be dissolved. 

 

There are three new sources of information for this blog:

 

Professor Anthony Costello

Is a professor of Child Health attached to UCL and the WHO. He is the key person, and is the man to watch. He believes that policies that have worked in other places will work here, if we allow them to. He believes in a “Circuit Breaker” to apply to everyone to allow the present disaster to cool down over 2 weeks. The SAGE committee agrees with him, and recommended this course of action on 21st September. Once the decision to replace them has been made, HMG must make the necessary changes in the key people who are opposing change.m We are heading for large numbers of unnecessary deaths if we continue our present policies.

 

Professor Devi Sridar 

She is a professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh. A lockdown buys us time, it does not remove the virus. But it may reduce the otherwise unavoidable rises of new cases. 

But as prevalence is now doubling quite quickly, it is time that we need. The virus doesn’t just attack the lungs, but also attacks the kidneys, liver, blood vessels and brain. A ‘long form’ of covid has now also been recognised. To achieve effective control we need an effective FTTIS policy, with people who understand health problems closely involved and provided with additional training in order to improve efficiency. Test results need to be available in less than 24 hours, and a high adherence to a 14 day isolation, and an avoidance of poorly ventilated indoor locations. The idea that you can ‘have your life back by Christmas,’ or ‘its the economy or your health’ are both quite wrong. Immunity to the virus may wane quickly, there are still many details that we need. 

 

Louise Smith and five other colleagues at King’s College and other London locations

They have recently completed a major study into adherence to the FTTIS system. Rates of adherence to test, trace and isolate behaviours in the UK need to be systematically investigated. while ‘intention to carry out desirable behaviours‘ is quite high, the self reported adherence to such advice is very much lower, and this is true over a wide range of behaviours. Identification of covid symptoms is also distressingly low, an example of the gaps between what is seen as an ‘intended behaviour’ and what is relf-reported as having actually occurred occurs over a wide range. For example, 70% agree that self isolation is an intended behaviour, but only 20% self reported this as an actual behaviour. Another example would be quarantine, seen as an intended behaviour by 65%, but reported as a self-reported behavious by only 10%. It is clear that the right message is not getting through to the people who need to hear it. The investigators recommend that financial rewards are likely to improve matters considerably. 

 

 

Conclusion.

Our PM is trying to please everyone, but is on a course to be responsible for a severe crash, with large numbers of unnecessary deaths.  The pygmy cabinet, bequeathed to the PM by Dominic Cummings, is hardly likely to favour a radical solution like that proposed here: but dissatisfaction is now felt in Parliament and by other political parties; many Tory MPs  are also critical of the way things are going. A radical change is necessary, and we need it as soon as possible. We must stop putting up with very high rates of new covid-19 cases, and take steps to gradually reduce our rates of new cases of covid-19. This will take time, but it is the only way as long as we are without an effective vaccine. 

 

 

David Goldberg

15th October 2020

To mark the time when our government turned their back on science. A key moment, perhaps?