Week 6

This will be the week when courageous countries try taking the brakes off.

We will wait to see what such Trumpian procedures achieve for them. Austria, Denmark and Czechia are all wondering which brake to remove.

 

Problem 1:

 

Let’s start with some countries which appear to be on a descending path of prevalence,  they will have longer values for the number of days to double prevalence, and all have fewer than one death /day, /million at risk. They have a range of different climates, with one in Europe, two the other side of the world, and one very hot.

 

 

                                        Australia            NZ               Greece               Malaysia

 

Time x2 prevalence              29 days               22 days             25 days                24 days

(23 april)

 

Testing                                   2511/k                 2379/k            5.7/k              3.6/k        

 

Cases /M                                     261                   231                 236              168

Daily New Cases/M                 .78                     .64                  2.7                2.7

                                               

 

Total Deaths /M                    2.8                        2.5                 11.1               2.7

Daily deaths/M                     .18                       .35                  .64               .16

 

Temperature, March 21       18 -22C           18-25C            9-15C           30-35 C

 

GINI Index                             34                         33                  33.2            42.8

 

Comment:,  The hottest country  has the lowest cases/M,  the  antipodean  countries  have lowest daily new cases, but their cases/M are impressively similar to Greece, which has the highest deaths/M.  

 

 

Problem 2: How does Austria manage such results which are overall as good as Germany’s?

 

                                                       MAXIMAL TESTING        MINIMAL TESTING

 

    Switzerland                 Germany       Austria        Spain

 

 

Area of country                          41/km2              357/km2                   100/km2        505/km2

 

Density of population/km2        209/km2          233/km2                  517/km2     93/km2

 

Soc. Geography                              Alpine             Industrial                  Alpine      Indust/Ag

                                                                                                           

% populn. from country             75.4%                  78.7%         91.1%           89%

 

THE COVID 19 COMPARISON

 

Time to double prevalence      26 days               23 days      25 days     23 days

 

Tests/K                                           25%                  25%             25%          0.4%

 

Total cases/M                              3304                    1819         1673          4700 

Daily confirmed cases/M            21/k                    25/k         9.4/k        144/k

           

Total deaths   (April 23)              1308                  5,500          513           22,524

Total Deaths/M                              158                     61            54                 464

Daily new deaths/M                      21.1                   24.7          9.4                367

 

Comment: Ignoring the control country (Spain),  Austria has a low rate/k for new cases, and the lowest  rate for new deaths/M.  It is more densely populated than other European countries. Despite the much lower mortality  in deaths/M than Germany, Austria even managed a lockdown less severe than other countries.

 

 

David Goldberg

Sunday 19 April

42 days survived, 42 days to go

 

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