Week 4

If we develop the famous symptoms and ask our GP to see us, do we have a real choice in what happens next?  A Moral Conundrum

 

S/he is likely to refer you to hospital, where the future steps are quite well-known. These are the chances for those <70 yrs:

 

If you recover, you are likely to see important others again. The overall probability of recovery is quite high, although for ‘tier 5’ (those older than 70), the probability of mortality is about 4 to 5 times higher than for those under 70. One figure suggests that with full treatment, the mortality may be only about 12 – 14% (meaning that around 85% of over 70ies, those receiving hospital treatment are likely to recover).

 

If you do not recover, you are unlikely to see your loved ones ever again. For an undocumented minority, you will be saying a final goodbye as you leave for the hospital. (In both Italy and Spain, it is not clear whether your relatives will even be able to collect your ashes, and conditions have sometimes been described as chaotic. We do not yet know how things will develop in the UK over the next few weeks).

 

Since Public Health England ignored the advice from WHO to ‘test, test, test’; and since they mentioned the disastrous notion of ‘herd immunity’ to the PM, we have been let down by those whose job it was to protect us, and we missed our chance at a key moment, with a loss of opportunity to flatten the curve.

 

How are we oldies affected?

 

We have not been told what proportion of oldies will die, if they prefer not to enter hospital.  We are nearer death, of course, and may prefer to avoid hospital admission if we can – but the outlook for untreated old people who may have underlying morbidity, but are otherwise well, is perhaps not known. It is not known how much higher it is than the rate for oldies who prefer to stay at home. It is likely to be much higher, but we do not have an exact figure.

 

Against these unknown risks, there are some undoubted advantages.

You will remain in a familiar setting, and can avail yourself of much greater comfort and better food.  The fact that we have already been prevented from doing our usual duties as grandparents, and will not be using NHS services at a time of huge pressure may even make us prepared to seriously consider this possibility.

If you feel you have had a good life, and would like to avoid the undoubted humiliation of being in a coma during forced ventilation, staying at home is worth thinking about for us oldies. 

 

David Goldberg

12 April 2020

28 days survived, 56 days to go

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