Week 27: What’s new at the Office of National Statistics (ONS)?

The amount of data available at the ONS is quite staggering. Most of it provides comparable data by year of previous data runs with the same variables – and shows little change. We will be ignoring all such data, and confine ourselves to data which is showing change. Don’t expect such excitement from most of the tables, showing none or very little change. After dealing with the pandemic, we will take a quick look at some of the other tables!

 

First, some standard Covid-19 stuff

 

Infection survey, up to 10th September

	England	Wales
Glass half full? (what the tvnewscasters give)	59,800 (95% ci 46.9 – 75.2)​	1,500 (1,400 – 3,900)
or half empty?​(what the actual rates are)	= 1 case in 900 people (95% 1,200 to 700)	= 1 case in 2000 (8,200 – 800)
New cases	1.1 (95% ci 0.77 – 1.51) new cases per 10K people / day. ​ = 6,000 new cases / day (95% - 4,200 to 8,300)

Number of deaths, up to 4th September

 

Total deaths, all causes: 7,739, (1,283 fewer than previous week, 15.7% below the 5 year average)

Covid-19 mentioned:  78, the lowest number for 25 weeks). The decrease in lethality of the virus may well be due to the younger age group now affected, and this in turn to the increased risk that young people are exposed to, as well as super-spreader events.

 

If you already have covid-19

 

it depends on your age and gender:	Males.	Females
age >85 yrs old	10,136	11,590
75  to  84	10.051	6,899
65 to   74	4,991	2,734
45 to   64	3,256	1,425
15 to   44	325	225

For those of us in our mid and late eighties, these figures are depressing indeed!

 

Crime during the lockdown (data - May 2020)

Overall, there was a 32% reduction in crime during the lockdown, with rates being compared with similar data prepared the previous year. But there were interesting differences between types of offence: Sexual crimes, Robbery and theft, Criminal damage and arson all went down, compared with rates the previous year. But drug offences increased, while all the others stayed the same.

 

Age-standardised mortality rates by ethnic status (May 15, 2020)

Between ages of 9 and 64: Black males had a rate 4.7 times higher than white males, Bangladeshi & Pakistanni rates were not statistically different from black rates. All rates are /100,000 population. Female rates are significantly below male rates for all ethnic groups.

Ages >65: Once more, black males had the highest rates, with Pakistani and Bangladeshi rates being well below them. Female rates are well below male rates for all ethnic groups. White females have a lower rate than all other female groups. Black females have a higher rate than all other non-white groups. These figures just provide rates /100K at risk.

 

Where are they working – at  home, or back in the office?(September 2020)

36% of the workforce is back at the office

11% are still furloughed.

 

For the 3rd consecutive month, most firms report increased turnover.

 

Job adverts.

These are at about 50% of pre-covid levels. Only health and social care are advertising fully, a few in education; all others greatly reduced.

 

Footfall.

Is at about 90% of precovid levels. 

 

 

Non covid-19 events:

 

Interest in elections

In 2019, there was a 2.8% increase in the number of people who registered in order to participate, and appear on the electoral register. This was true for all 4 countries in the UK. But more people wanted to be on the local government register (49,153,700)than the one for national elections (47,074,600).

This makes sense if you live in an area with a huge majority for one party – the chances are greater that your vote for local politicians will make a real difference, even if you’re in a ‘safe seat’ area.

 

Religion

Over one third of the Muslim population are below the age of 16, while Christian and Jewish populations were mainly over 60. Attendance to services occurred in >50% of Sikhs, Muslims and Hindus, but only 25% of Christians.

 

Way back in 1972, 97% of 426K marriages were of opposite sex couples (only a small drop from rates in 1940); not any more! In 2017, opposite sex couples were only 236K, and of these only 22% occurred in church. 88% of opposite sex coules had cohabited before marriage. Mean age for opposite sex couples was 38 for men, 35.7 for women, much later than before.

 

Same sex couples are now becoming much more common, for both men and women.

 

Life expectancy

Is becoming longer. In 2004, a man of 65 lived for 19.8 years, but by 2017 he would on average live for 21.7 years; fpr women the equivalent figures are 16.8 and 19.4.  Looking at progress between 1991 and 2014, males are living longer by 5.9 years, females only by 4.1 years: so the gender gap is gradually closing. Only the pandemic is delaying ONS from repeating this study.

 

Achievements of young people, aged 21 – 24:

How many achieved a degree, and the interaction with disability. The figures are for the entire population of young people in this age range. Only 38% of the non-disabled population achieve a degree at University, with a disability causing some limitations the rate goes down to 15.5%, and if the disability causes ‘a lot of disability’, the rate plunges to 5.9%.

 

House prices.

These are consistantly increasing despite the pandemic. This is so for all 4 countries, but is highest in London, and lowest in Northern Ireland. Increasing by 4.2  - 4.8% /year in London, the Midlands, Southwest and Northwest; and by 1.7 – 3.3% /year in the East, South East & Northeast & Yorkshire.

 

Civil partnerships in old age.

These were introduced in 2006. At first, 60% of such partnerships were male. The overall rate flat lined between 3.5 and 5% between 2004 and 2010. But since 2015 the rate has been increasing for those above the age of 65: for both sexes, these are between 19 and 20%!

 

Conclusions

For the virus, we are well into the second wave of the virus, as indeed most developed countries are. 

For a phenomenon to be noticed by our pygmy politicians, this is good and unexpected news. Unfortunately they are unwilling or perhaps unable to do anything about it, and our detect and trace activities are undoubtedly almost completely ineffective. The only other finding is that all those who can afford it (and perhaps quite a few of those who can’t) have increased their alcohol intake.

 

We hope that you found something of interest in the non-covidpart of this report. Good to find that other changes are also occurring in the world around us.

 

David Goldberg

20th September 2020

Our next blog will return to two populist leaders (Bolsonaro in Brazil, and Modi in India) who are making a very different pig’s ear of ruining their country.